Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
